Home prices increased 13.4% on a year-over-year basis.

MBS OVERVIEW
We get our first real dose of economic data for the week and start three straight days of Treasury auctions.

TODAY’S EVENTS
Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Home prices increased 13.4% on a year-over-year basis. The consensus estimates were for a gain of 13.3%. This is not a report that impacts your pricing.
Consumer Confidence: This report has the potential to drive your pricing today. The market is expecting a reading around 80.0. It will take a reading below that for you to see a sustainable rally in MBS (better pricing for you). If we get a reading close to or above 81.0, then this will provide some downward pressure on pricing.
Richmond Fed: This is another regional manufacturing report that is likely to be just as dismal as the other East Coast reports (NY and Philly). The weather will obviously be a temporary factor in the weak reading.
Treasury Auctions This Week:
02/25 2 Year Note – today
02/26 5 Year Note
02/27 7 Year Note

What happened yesterday?

MBS OVERVIEW
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) gained just +6 basis points (BPS) from Friday’sclose which caused 30 year fixed mortgage rates to move sideways. Over the past 8 trading sessions, our benchmark MBS has moved only +12BPS…now that is a narrow range!

We had a very boring day in bond world with no major Treasury auctions or economic releases yesterday. As a result, our benchmark MBS drifted sideways and traded in a very narrow range that was only 20 BPS wide from our intra-day highs to our intra-day lows.

The stock market had a great day though. The S&P 500 almost set a new record and the DOW gained over 100 points. So MBS should inversely sell off right? Well….our benchmark MBS was up a meager +6BPS…certainly not a sell off. This further underscores that stocks and bonds are trading independently of each other. This is due to the fact that regardless of what the stock market does…the Fed is still purchasing a large supply of 10 year notes and Agency MBS.

We will return to that age old inverse relationship between stocks and bonds once the Fed’s monthly purchases drop down to near the end of their tapering cycle later this year.